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< | Has the apparent fragility of the US democracy and its democratic institutions of governance emboldened autocracies around the world? | >
> | The Emboldening of Autocracies: A Threat to the Democratic World Order | | | | |
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< | -- By AngusGaffney - 24 Feb 2024 | >
> | -- By AngusGaffney - 29 May 2024 | | | | |
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< | The world is watching… holding its breath. Ordinary Ukrainians are watching and praying. NATO allies are watching and worrying. But, more consequentially, global autocrats are watching and waiting....poised to press their advantage as America’s defense of the international world order seems to falter. As the world seems precariously balanced on the brink of a widening global conflict, the US seems increasingly impotent in its ability to defend vulnerable democracies from the ambitions of bad-faith autocrats. As global crises threaten on multiple fronts, bad actors from authoritarian regimes form strategic alliances to test the resolve of the world's so-called ‘policeman’. They sow the seeds of geopolitical unrest not only on the battlefront, but through the financial markets, and more insidiously through misinformation spread throughout US society for the hearts and minds of ordinary Americans. | | | | |
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< | Their goal is to undermine the international rules-based order advanced by the US and its Western partners, which seeks to hold ambitious autocrats in check as they seek to undermine peace and security. As International bodies of global governance such as the United Nations and International Criminal Court have become increasingly undermined by authoritarian state actors colluding to veto resolutions, or refusing to accept their jurisdiction, global governance requires bolstering by strong democracies who seek to hold authoritarian autocracies accountable. | >
> | Introduction | | | | |
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< | However, global conflicts orchestrated by authoritarian dictators, such as Putin, continue to threaten the stability of sovereign democracies, whose democratic governments and electorates are put under strain through migration flows and energy dependence.
Social destabilization within democratic sovereign states represents a successful strategy for autocrats such as Putin, whose close collaborations with autocracies such as North Korea, China and Iran, welcome new members to their bad actors club - intent on diminishing US dominance. | >
> | As a young boy growing up in rural England, I recall listening to my grandfather expound on the importance of the special friendship between England and the United States. It was, he said, a friendship that was grounded in the shared values of freedom and democracy during an era that sought to honor the sacrifices made by those who fought to defend such freedoms. As a dual citizen, I have grown up observing the levers of democratic soft power being used on both sides of the pond to uphold the norms of international governance. Moreover, to have been able to study law in Scotland before attending Columbia has given me further insights into the respective legal frameworks and constitutional principles that underpin the strategic alliance between the US and the UK. Indeed, my grandfather’s words continue to resonate with me as global geopolitical tensions seemingly threaten to break down the global order of international law and test the resolve of the world's so-called ‘policeman’. Consequently, the importance of such global friendships between the United States and its allies has become increasingly crucial to provide a bulwark against the ambitions of authoritarian nations, such as Russia, who would seek to erode democratic norms. The insidious erosion of human rights and the legal systems that hold such autocratic leaders accountable becomes evident in the dismantling of democratic freedoms, which was observable following the transfer of Hong Kong to China’s authoritarian rule. | | | | |
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< | Consequently, their threat to US democratic norms and values remains insidious and nuanced as the autocrats’ club patiently waits for their opportunities. However, their concerted approach to undermine the resolve of the US and its allies remains undiminished through their support of each other to evade international sanctions, provide military support and create diversionary conflicts to test the US playbook and resilience. Their tactics to destabilize moderate governments have led to a shift to far-right politics whose governments pivot towards authoritarian policies. However, it is the war they wage through cyber misinformation and espionage that creates the most insidious threat to the US pillars of democracy and systems of governance. | >
> | Background | | | | |
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< | While US and partner intelligence agencies, such as the “ Five Eyes” liaise to monitor the tireless efforts of the members of the bad actors club to subvert global norms of governance, more nuanced warfare waged through manipulations of oil and gas prices, together with food and commodity prices can be effective at creating electoral defeat of one’s enemies and the installation of more ideologically aligned leaders. | >
> | Global conflicts orchestrated by authoritarian dictators, or their proxies, continue to undermine the stability of sovereign democracies, whose democratic governments and electorates are put under strain. In doing so, authoritarian regimes seek to subvert the international rules-based order, advanced by the US and its Western partners, which seeks to hold ambitious autocrats in check as they endeavor to erode peace and security. Such authoritarian states view democratic values as a threat to their stranglehold over their populations. It may be argued that Russia determined that alliances such as NATO, a coalition of democratic nations, could not be allowed to expand and perpetuate its ideals and influence-especially in Ukraine. The existence of a Russian-speaking nation, with many Ukrainian citizens having Russian relatives, enjoying the democratic freedoms and protections of a Western-backed NATO, would be perceived to undermine Putin’s control. Increasingly, other ambitious autocracies, such as China, have aligned themselves with Russia for both financial and territorial ambitions of their own. Conceivably, if global alliances of democratic nations fail to halt a successful invasion of Ukraine, then China may be emboldened to make strategic conquests of their own. | | | | |
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< | Consequently, conspiracy theories abound about Russian interference in US political life, and yet because such interference lurks in the shadows, it rarely pierces the consciousness of everyday Americans. It seems too incredible for us to believe that bad actors are shaping our political conversations and shifting the US political landscape towards more extreme political discourse and dysfunction. Indeed, it seems that our complacency about the security of US democratic institutions and pillars of government was only shaken by the events of January 6th, 2020, when American ‘patriots’ were convinced that they had to save their country. | >
> | Autocracy’s Utility | | | | |
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< | The attempt at the disruption of the peaceful transfer of power was a powerful exhibition of social disintegration that was portrayed into the sitting rooms of people all over the world. It was a display of the collapse, if only transitory, of the world's most powerful democratic nation, whose vivid display of anarchy served to undermine US moral authority around the globe. Autocratic governments relished the dysfunction of US democracy showcased in such chaotic technicolor, which laid bare our own democratic vulnerabilities and undermined US efforts to advance democratic principles of governance around the globe. | >
> | It may be further posited that it is an autocracy’s inherent authoritarianism that enables it to be politically agile, as its governance is not predicated upon the attainment of genuine consensus or accountability. Autocrats can rule without checks and balances, characterized by a belief that the ‘ends justify the means’, thereby validating the deceptions inherent in their mass propaganda. It is an autocrat’s disregard for human life juxtaposed by an almost fanatical appeasement by those around them, that characterize authoritarian leadership. Exemplified by the contrasting gullibility and cynicism of their populace, an autocracy manifests its electorate’s ready acceptance of their leader’s lies and their later cynical justification of them. More than just their compliant electorates, however, it is the multitudes of enablers who support their tyranny for either personal gain or opportunism, that bolster the autocrat’s grip on power. | | | | |
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< | In the aftermath of the violence to disrupt Congress in its efforts to certify the 2020 US election results, the wheels of democratic governance and the rule of law have steadily sought to bring those to justice for their lawlessness. Yet the world has seen America's soft underbelly exposed, its growing political chasms that belie genuine political discord and distrust in our previously revered institutions, are ripe conditions for an autocrat. The genuine belief held by huge swathes of the American people that they have been left behind and remain unheard, provides fertile ground for the identity politics that now threaten the effective passage of legislation and the decline in political discourse within the legislative branches of government. More pertinently, our freedoms and democracy in themselves become vulnerabilities that bad actors exploit through infiltration of our free speech on social media and the freedom of our press. Autocrats such as Putin employ sophisticated espionage and propaganda to subvert democracies and sow distrust in our institutions. We can see evidence of his efforts in the Republican front-runner’s grassroots campaign to spread discord and American isolationism - characterized as patriotism. Such adversarial statecraft remains nuanced and in the shadows, and to suggest that American political life is shaped by global autocrats seems conspiratorial and unsubstantiated. Their weapons of assault against the US democracy are subtle and autocrats like Putin are patient and strategic actors. The spymaster needs only to spread his web of misinformation and espionage, secure in his own political immunity from any political discord. | >
> | The Emboldening of Autocracies | | | | |
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< | Perhaps the most consequential indication of dysfunction within the pillars of US governance is the failure of the US Congress to pass legislation for the supplemental funding of Ukraine which emboldens authoritarian regimes like Russia and China to act with impunity. Subsequently, the world order disintegrates as powerful and efficient autocracies thrive. As American cries of patriotism ring hollow as mere appeasement, democracy remains under threat | >
> | A key driver of the decline of global democracies remains the civil disintegration that occurs through the insecurity and instability that results from the failure of its institutions to cope with the internal and external pressures upon them. Accordingly, social destabilization within democratic sovereign states represents a successful strategy for autocracies, whose strategic alliances seek to diminish Western democratic norms and values. Such adversarial statecraft remains nuanced and in the shadows: an insidious war waged through cyber misinformation and propaganda that seeks to undermine the pillars of global democratic governance.
More pertinently, our freedoms and democracy in themselves become vulnerabilities that rogue nations may exploit through infiltration of our social media and the freedom of our press. Their methods of assault against Western democracies are subtle, necessitating that democratic institutions remain vigilant to safeguard against complacency. In view of this, the reinforcement of global democracies requires the concerted development of enhanced coalitions of democratic nations to safeguard the democratic norms of governance that respect sovereign integrity and the international rules-based order. Accordingly, global initiatives to drive a resurgence of democracies have intensified following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine’s sovereign territory and will require a consideration of the global democracy-autocracy power dynamic in the aftermath of the war. The global ramifications of one autocracy’s incursion upon another sovereign power have led to immense geo-political and economic consequences: causing unimaginable suffering and loss of human rights through conflict, famine and migration. It therefore remains a vital strategic imperative to maintain our special friendships and democratic alliances to create an effective deterrent against further autocratic aberrations: to maintain a peaceful global order. | | | | |
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> | Influence on my Law Career | | | | |
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The best route to improvement is to identify the actual central idea and write a draft around it. The existing language is rhetoric, plausibly string together. It's as though the tautological question serving as a title had been used as a chatbot prompt, and the draft were what the bot strung together in response. As time goes by more works of this genre—human beings writing like chatbots—will accumulate, I'm sure. We are trying not to write like that here. | >
> | The global threat to democratic principles of governance causes the erosion of human rights, particularly where conflict arises and the effects of poverty and migration become exacerbated. As I seek to embark on my law career, global events have reinforced my aspirations to pursue areas of the law where human rights have been most afflicted. This summer, as I work as an intern with a team of human rights lawyers seeking to uphold women’s rights in the Baltic regions, I hope to hone my skills doing the work that is needed to bolster international protections against human trafficking. Within an international system of governance, it seems unconscionable that modern-day slavery continues to thrive: namely through trafficker’s exploitation of global conflict and instability. | | | | |
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< | What is the actual idea? Where did it come from? (The text does not mention any other human being who has ever thought about international relations before, does not refer to any history, political science, or other actual learning from which we could learn.) How is your idea related to other contemporary views from which it differs or out of which it develops? What consequences flow intellectually from the idea you have learned your way to? How might the reeder take your idea forward from the conclusion to which it led you? How does what you have learned in the formation of your idea affect your lawyer's theory of social action overall? How does it modify or reinforce your developing intentions with respect to your future practice? | | | | |
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< | In short, the way to improve the draft is to give it human dynamics. The problem with prose assembled by mindless language shuffling, or with sort-of human prose paralleling the mechanical literary form, is that it is static, impersonal, isolated, and therefore antithetical to the purposiveness of lawyer's writing.
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> | References | | | | |
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> | AIRE Centre. Anti-trafficking organisations condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine, The AIRE Centre | | | | |
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> | Angela Köckritz. How tomorrow never comes: Russia’s war against Ukraine and its impact on Taiwan, European Council on Foreign Relations, August 8, 2023
Amitai Etzioni. Freedom of Navigation Assertions: The United States as the World’s Policeman, Sage Publications, July 9, 2021, see page 508
Bill Keller. Why Intellectuals Support Dictators, New York Times, July 19, 2020
Mesha Gessen. Surviving Autocracy (Prologue), Riverhead Books, June 2, 2020, see Prologue
Mesha Gessen. Surviving Autocracy (Preface), Riverhead Books, June 2, 2020, see Preface
Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds. Operation Z: The Death Throes of an Imperial Delusion, Royal United Services Institute, April 22, 2022, see page 9
Richard Youngs. Autocracy Versus Democracy After the Ukraine Invasion: Mapping a Middle Way, Carnegie Europe, July 20, 2022
USIP. A Global Democratic Resurgence is the Best Path Toward Peace, United States Institute of Peace, December 9, 2021
William H. Overholt. Hong Kong: The Rise and Fall of “One Country, Two Systems”, Harvard Kennedy School, December, 2019, see page 27, 28, 29 | | |
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