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< | Eben, I apologize, but I don't think this is ready quite yet. I still need to tighten up the argument and cut out some words, I hope to have that done by tomorrow evening.
Why do law school students continually go to big firms when they know they're likely to be unhappy? For many of the same reasons that people go to Las Vegas to gamble when they know they're likely to lose money. | | |
Introduction | |
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< | Law students continually pine for big firm jobs despite evidence that such jobs are characterized by unhappiness and attrition. Nearly forty million people per year travel to Las Vegas despite evidence they're likely to lose money. Each scenario is an identity-building activity, with the student and gambler volunteering to play the mark and subject himself to a con.
On the first day, Eben estimated 15-20% of big firm lawyers he knows are happy. My response was to shrug it off and assume I’d be one of the happy ones. But the odds suggest I’m wrong, and it’s becoming apparent that taking those odds at such high stakes is an enormous gamble. Understanding the casino scheme can shed insight on why some students gamble their careers at big law firms. | >
> | Gamblers at casinos face unfavorable odds of winning, just as students joining big firms face unfavorable odds of career fulfillment. Understanding the casino scheme sheds insight on why some students decide to gamble their careers at such firms. Both casinos and firms induce participation in their cons by building an identity for their marks, convincing the marks they are special and they will stand out from the losing masses. | | | | |
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> | Bleeding Marks Slowly | | | | |
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< | The Con: Wealth Creation | >
> | Casino games are designed to bleed money from individuals. Blackjack, played properly, gives the house about a 51-49 advantage. Slot machines, giving the worst odds, return about 9/10ths of the wagers. At these odds, some individuals walk away winners and every player experiences at least some winning. These short-term wins are necessary to the con: casinos must show there’s something in it for their marks, like Sean Mekas sending a claim document to Spiros Tzourous. Short-term wins are also essential to forming an identity conducive to generating long-term losses. They allow the mark to overstate his contribution to wins, thinking he is a skilled gambler. He can deflect losses as bad luck, beyond his control. Letting a gambler consistently win hides his overall losses, and reinforces his belief that he is special and can win. | | | | |
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< | Wealth creation for casinos is simple mathematics; they only offer games where the house wins. The hard part of the con is to convince people to gamble anyway. Casinos do so by sending various messages. The relevant message for this paper is: “You are lucky. While the group of gamblers must lose, you can be the individual that wins.”
One way firms create wealth is by projecting a heightened air of importance. They can afford fancy offices, lavish parties, and six-figure starting salaries because their attorneys are so much better than other available lawyers. As Tharaud demonstrates, this is just a front. Still, the firm’s message is convincing: “We have the best lawyers from the best law schools, and joining us makes you part of that group”.
The Lucky Individual | >
> | Firms similarly run their con slowly. An associate job isn’t a blatantly losing proposition; firms provide legitimate benefits to convince the mark he can win. Students can quickly pay off loans, earn money, and gain prestige. Students can avoid the con by seeing these short-term wins as cloaking the long-term losses bled from students who pawn their licenses. | | | | |
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< | Since gambling is an identity-forming play, casinos need to make the actor feel special. Once the actor feels special, he may begin acting as though he can win (even if he doesn’t actually believe it).
Casino games are designed to bleed money from an individual rather than wipe him out quickly. Blackjack, when played properly, gives the House less than a 51-49 advantage. Slot machines, generally giving the worst odds, allow players to keep about 9/10ths of his wager. At these odds, individuals can walk away winners and every player will at least experience the thrill of winning. These short-term wins are necessary to the Casino’s long-term con: the casino must show its marks there’s something in it for him. A winning hand is Sean Mekas sending a claim document to Spiros Tzourous. This con is particularly effective because gamblers rarely track their wins and losses accurately. Reinforcing a mark’s belief that he can win at a game of skill cloaks the math which invariably holds true: anyone gambling in a casino long enough inevitably loses.
The mark, experiencing wins and seeing others win, starts feeling he is special and starts believing in his luck. He overvalues his contribution. These are purely chance games, but casinos convince him that he affects the outcome (through lucky superstitions or strategies). Wins are attributed to skill, and the mark forms his identity around his ability to produce such wins. Some people think they’re good at blackjack; at best, gamblers can play by the book and lose as slowly as possible. Losses are attributed to bad luck; and since luck is outside of the mark’s control, he is blameless when he loses. The ability to deflect your shortcomings is a phenomenal feeling. Casinos are a safe place to form an identity. | | | | |
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< | Casinos and firms make sure their marks feel special along the way. Casinos provide high-class services, luxurious settings, complimentary drinks, and scantily-clad waitresses. Students are treated similarly: firm receptions, fancy offices, high salaries, and inflated prestige. The mark, gambler or law student, receives such service and buys into the identity being fed to him. He is special. Therefore, he can stand out from the group. The group will lose, its money or its license, but he will not.
The analogy extends further. High-stakes gamblers play at exclusive tables separated from the general floor. They receive higher luxury and personal service. These gamblers are like partners. On the surface they are above the masses of marks, but they are losing to the exact same con. | >
> | Special Treatment | | | | |
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> | Casinos make sure their marks feel special as they play, providing luxurious settings, complimentary drinks, and scantily-clad waitresses. Firms treat students similarly: firm receptions, fancy offices, high salaries, and inflated prestige. This treatment stands out from how the mark is accustomed to being treated by businesses or employers. Not all gamblers or students are affected by such treatment, but for many it is easy to buy into the identity this pampering feeds the mark. He is special. Not everyone can succeed at this game or this firm, but he can. | | | | |
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< | Why the Split? | >
> | The Layout: Exterior Waste Covers Interior Traps | | | | |
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< | A typical gambler begins with dreams of conquering a game, despite the odds. When he finds himself losing money, the goal changes to just breaking even. This proves difficult because the casino has the opposite goal, and the casino controls the game. As gamblers find themselves further behind they need to make larger leaps forward, leading some to the flawed strategy of increasing their bets. Occasionally luck intervenes and the gambler can break even, but usually numbers dominate and larger bets simply lose more money. (Casinos set maximum bets, otherwise this strategy could work). | >
> | Why do Vegas hotels depict tacky caricatures of Egypt, Greece, and pirate ships? One function is to display waste. By consenting to lose money playing games, gamblers contribute to this waste and thereby gain the identity created by conspicuous consumption. Not everyone can afford waste, so once again the message is “you are special”. While outlandish exteriors suggest waste, casino are actually meticulously designed to extract money. All traffic is routed through the casino. Time is obscured, with no clocks or windows. Exits are not easily accessible. Slot machines, the most efficient moneymaker, are near all entrances and take up the most floor space. Casinos are designed to trap; if they can just get you in the casino, they can get you to spend money. | | | | |
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< | Students enter firms with various goals, including making money, enjoying prestige, and paying off loans. Firms can provide these small victories, proving there’s something in it for us like casinos giving their gamblers periodic wins. But if your goals conflict with the firms’ goals, they control the game, and they can put up obstacles in your path. As an associate becomes less content with his job and his life (the gambler falling behind), the reasons he entered law school subside. The associate begins looking to just get back to even. To make law school worth the investment. Often, this means trying to make partner. The thinking is that while associate life is miserable, partner life offers something different. Of course an associate seeking a promotion at a job he dislikes, because he thinks he’ll find happiness at the next tier, is stupid. Just as betting more money on a blackjack hand won’t change the odds of success, investing more time at a job you hate won’t change the odds of career fulfillment. | >
> | Firms similarly display waste to send a message that the firm and its members are prestigious. While outwardly catering to students, firms are structured to generate profits. Students are made to feel special, but associates spend 2200 hours per year solving others’ legal problems. A firm’s recruiting message is that you are special and it needs your talent; meanwhile, associate work is anything but special or personally meaningful. Like casinos, firms similarly hope to trap students. They promote the idea that many career paths necessarily go through big firms. This strategy is effective; many students plan on using big firms as springboards to other careers, but find leaving difficult. | | | | |
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< | The Layout | >
> | Just Break Even
A typical gambler begins with dreams of conquering the odds. When he finds himself losing money, the goal changes to just breaking even. This proves difficult because casinos have the opposite goal, and they have structured the game to suit their needs. As gamblers find themselves further behind they need to make larger leaps forward; a gambler trying to make up losses must either increase their bets or play longer. Occasionally luck intervenes and the gambler can break even, but usually numbers dominate and larger bets simply lose more money. (Casinos set maximum bets, otherwise this strategy could work). | | | | |
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< | Why do tacky hotels depict Ancient Egypt, Greece, and pirates? These superfluous caricatures create a sense of waste. Everything is unnecessarily over-the-top. Since nothing in Vegas can be taken seriously, visitors stop taking themselves seriously and buy into the wasteful environment. Then, investing money into games you will eventually lose becomes natural.
While outlandish exteriors encourage waste, the underlying structure in casinos is meticulously designed to extract money most efficiently. Their interiors are remarkably similar. Guests must walk through the casino to get anywhere. Time is obscured, with no clocks or windows. Exits are not easily accessible. Slot machines, casinos’ most efficient moneymaker, are placed near the entrances and account for more floor space than any other game.
Casinos are designed to trap the casual passerby; if they can just get him in the casino, they can get him to spend money. Firms similarly hope to trap students. They insist that becoming a top lawyer requires first joining their office. This strategy is effective; when firms get students to become associates, they can often alter the associates’ career plans. Many students plan on working at firms only until they pay off their loans. Many gamblers plan on playing for just a little while, incurring just a little loss. Both may be conned into staying, and therefore losing, for a long time. Just as casinos obscure time, firms obscure time by requiring ridiculous work hours. | >
> | A typical student begins with dreams of solving meaningful legal problems. However, the firm’s goal is not to help associates fulfill their dreams, but rather to boost profits. Since firms are in control, they are structured to use associates for their own goals. At this realization an associate should discontinue participating in a scheme structured against him. But like a gambler trying to break even, associates are prone to staying a little longer, hoping things will turn around and the J.D. will not be a losing investment. | | | | |
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> | As associates become unhappy, firms return to the “you are special” message. Firms tell associates that once they make partner they’ll be special again, and life will improve. More likely, unsatisfied associates just become unsatisfied partners. On the surface partners receive greater benefits than associates, but they are still losing to the same con. Just as betting more money on a blackjack hand won’t change the odds of winning, investing more of your career at a firm you dislike won’t change the odds of career fulfillment. The rate at which associates revive their careers by making partner is only slightly higher than the rate at which alchemists succeed in turning base metals into gold. | | | | |
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< | Conclusion | | | | |
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< | Putting money into a slot machine is no less tangible than handing your license to a firm. In both instances you wager a valuable commodity which was earned through prior work and which has the potential to bring future rewards. But one can always make more money; one cannot always salvage a lost career. When lawyers wager something they cannot afford to lose on a game of chance they are mathematically likely to lose, the wager is a poor one. | >
> | Conclusion | | | | |
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> | Casinos tell gamblers they’re special to convince marks they can win at games favoring the house. Big firms are a similarly structured con, telling students they are special to convince them career fulfillment exists in a job designed for the firm’s benefit. If we look beyond the message firms send and the identity they offer us, we can recognize the underlying parts of their con as a game of chance with the odds against our favor. None of us would wager our licenses on a roulette spin, as we could not afford to lose. Likewise, we should stop wagering our licenses on the unlikely chance we will enjoy a big firm career. | | | |
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