Law in Contemporary Society

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JuliaS-FirstPaper 17 - 14 Feb 2008 - Main.AdamCarlis
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 -- By JuliaS - 09 Feb 2008
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<		 Prediction markets are aggregations of betting exchanges for contingent future events. On sites like InTrade? and NewsFutures? speculators are invited to trade contracts in the markets for scores of different socio-political events; from when China will attack Taiwan, to which Supreme Court Justice will be the next to retire, to whether NASA's next shuttle will rove father than its last. Speculators may buy and sell their contracts at any time, and the market prices - which represent the expected probability of the event - will rise and fall until the contingency occurs, at which point the price will either drop to zero or rise to one hundred and the market will expire. They work like conventional stock markets, except they trade in predictions instead of assets.
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>		 Prediction markets are aggregations of betting exchanges for contingent future events. On sites like InTrade and NewsFutures speculators are invited to trade contracts in the markets for scores of different socio-political events; from when China will attack Taiwan, to which Supreme Court Justice will be the next to retire, to whether NASA's next shuttle will rove father than its last. Speculators may buy and sell their contracts at any time, and the market prices - which represent the expected probability of the event - will rise and fall until the contingency occurs, at which point the price will either drop to zero or rise to one hundred and the market will expire. They work like conventional stock markets, except they trade in predictions instead of assets.
 The markets have a number of interesting implications – from foreseeing threats and managing risks, to guiding policy formulation. Here, however, we will focus only on the relationship between prediction markets and our legal system.

Revision 17r17 - 14 Feb 2008 - 23:04:54 - AdamCarlis
Revision 16r16 - 14 Feb 2008 - 22:07:43 - JuliaS
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