Obama's Experience Problem

-- By AdamCarlis - 26 Feb 2008

Introduction

Clinton's attacks on Obama have raised questions about his experience and, assuming he is the Democratic nominee, those concerns will be amplified by McCain throughout the general election. Given Obama's actual experience, age, and race, it will be very difficult for him to assuage voters' concerns about his readiness to govern.

The Experience Argument

The Meaning of "Experience"

In politics, "experience" can mean any number of things and so it means precisely nothing, making it a winning word for politicians crafting a message the masses can support. It works because it's versatile. The word's ambiguity allows the candidates' message to be interpreted in concert with the voter's own worldview. Obama uses the term "quarter century of experience" to denigrate old man McCain? and Americans picture an aging Washington insider. Clinton raises her own "experience" as a foil to newcomer Obama and those same Americans picture a young man not quite ready for the oval office. Voters are allowed to define the word and they do so to the benefit of the speaker. Unfortunately for Obama, the experience mantle is being carried by Clinton and McCain, leaving him as the inexperienced foil to their "ready on day one."

The Liability of Inexperience

No one brags about their inexperience on the campaign trail. It is not a characteristic sought by voters choosing the next president. In any election cycle, being the inexperienced candidate is a handicap. That reality is heightened during this campaign because of the perceived inexperience and subsequent failures the Bush administration as well as voters heightened concerns about national security drummed up since September 11, 2001.

Experience in the General Election

The RNC recently released talking points for the general election. They plan to pick up where Clinton left off, hammering Obama on experience and questioning his readiness to serve as commander in chief. While these claims didn’t slow Obama down in the primary, McCain? is better positioned to raise these issues given his lengthy time in Congress, well-known military service, and nine additional months to hammer away.

As Karl Rove has shown, all it takes for them to make a charge stick against a Democrat is a little bit of truth, a willingness to obscure the issue, and a relentlessly focus and disciplined attack. Just as they questioned Max Cleland's patriotism, convinced the American public that there was a pre-war link between Al Qaeda and Iraq, and turned John Kerry into a waffling opportunist, they will exploit the public perception of Obama’s readiness for the job.

Barriers to Overcoming the Criticism

Current Perceptions

Obama starts behind the eight ball. Clinton earned 94% of voters in Virginia's open Democratic primary who cited experience as their top issue. While currently the economy, health care, and the war on terrorism rank as the top political issues of the campaign, both the recent polls and the past two presidential elections indicate that the race may come down to a few votes in a single swing state. If that is the case, the public’s perception of Obama’s readiness cold be the difference in the election.

Obama's Inexperience

Obama's record is too thin for him to take the issue head on. While his resume is comparable to Lincoln's, when standing next to John McCain? , who was in a POW camp while Obama was in grade school, it might be hard for voters to see the comparison. The Obama campaign has, instead, tried to shift the argument from "experience" to "judgment." While perhaps "masquing treason," the voters thus far have seemed to buy it.

Obama's Age

When the generation that votes in this country was at Woodstock, Obama was eight years old. It is hard to convince folks you are ready to lead when you are younger than their little brother. While voters are often willing to look beyond years, both John F. Kennedy Jr. and Bill Clinton had longer resumes than Obama when they ran for the president. Nevertheless, McCain will have to deemphasize age as much as he emphasizes experience. In fact, the more the public is focused on the candidates age, the better for Obama, given McCain would be the oldest person ever elected to the presidency.

Obama's Race

In a nation with embarrassingly few African Americans in government and backlash against affirmative action engrained into the psyche of white America, it is harder to picture an experienced black man than an experienced white man. Passionate, energetic, intelligent, and well-spoken, maybe, but, experienced, likely not.

Additionally, voting on "experience" can provide cover for people unwilling to vote for a black man. While certainly most people who wouldn't vote for a black person wouldn't support the policies that Obama advocates, there are some Democrats and Independents searching for a socially acceptable reason to justify their anti-Obama vote. These voters will likely cling to the experience issue.

These voters will be the hardest to persuade. While Obama can plausibly argue that good judgment is more important than lengthy experience or point to popular presidents who were his age and younger when elected, on the race issue he, to borrow from Ghandi, is the change he wants to see in the world. As a result, it will be next to impossible to convince some voters that he is ready and capable until he does it and does it well. Until then, he will be waging an uphill battle to shed the cloud of inexperience that follows his campaign.

Conclusion

Moving into the general election, Obama, if he is the Democratic nominee, will have an uphill battle convincing the public that he is ready to govern. While tackling the issue head on enabled him to stay afloat during the primary season, given the shifting demographics in the general election and the strengths of the McCain campaign, overcoming the experience question may prove to be too much for Obama.

- I think this might be moving in a better direction than your last paper. I think part of the danger with your topic is making it seem as if candidates are conspiring to put forth a racist argument. Obviously that's not only an inelegant summary of your point, but, well, not a summary of your point, since you make clear that you don't think any of this is (probably) some sort of evil master plan to play the race card. In any case, what I'm trying to say is that I think your paper rests on safer ground when it looks at what the voters are hearing, not what the candidates are trying to make the voters hear. Do other people agree?

Also, interesting sidenote: Clinton's "ready on day one" spiel? Allegedly stolen from McCain? 's website. -Amanda

• I really appreciate it, Amanda ... what do you think of the new draft? -- AdamCarlis 26 Feb 2008

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