Obama's Experience Problem

-- By AdamCarlis - 29 Feb 2008

Introduction

During the general election, McCain? will amplify the concerns Clinton has raised about Obama’s experience. Given Obama's thin resume, age, and race, it will be difficult for him to assuage voters' anxiety regarding his readiness to govern; costing him potentially decisive votes.

The Experience Argument

The Meaning of "Experience"

"Experience" can mean any number of things and so it means precisely nothing. Therefore, it is a winning word for politicians crafting a message the masses can support. It works because it's vague. Its ambiguity allows voters to interpret the candidates' message according to their own worldview. When Clinton raises her own experience as a foil to Obama, Americans picture a young man not quite ready for the oval office. Voters are allowed to define the word and the speaker benefits, allowing Clinton to paint Obama as inexperienced. In fact, "inexperienced" is the word voters most commonly use to describe him.

The Liability of Inexperience

In this election, being viewed as inexperienced is a handicap. Because of the perceived inexperience and subsequent failure of the Bush administration, security concerns drummed up since September 11, and crumbling economy, the public want a president who steps into the office ready to lead. Being seen otherwise will cost votes. Unfortunately for Obama, voters see McCain as more experienced.

Experience in the General Election

Obama cannot credibly claim the experience mantle in the general election. Instead, McCain’s lengthy time in Congress, popular military service, and nine additional months on the attack, position him to further entrench the nation’s questions about Obama’s readiness to lead. Moreover, McCain’s "maverick" persona allows him to acquire the experience mantle without being portrayed as a Washington insider or party crony. As a result, McCain is well-positioned to portray Obama as inexperienced.

Barriers to Overcoming the Criticism

Obama's Inexperience

As Karl Rove has shown, all it takes to make a charge stick is a little bit of truth, a willingness to obscure the issue, and a disciplined attack. Just as the Republicans questioned Max Cleland's patriotism and turned John Kerry into a waffling opportunist, they will exploit the public perception of Obama's readiness for the job. Unfortunately for Obama, he lacks the "little bit of truth" necessary to effectively fight back. A head to head resume battle favors McCain? and could be Obama's undoing. His best hope is to mitigate the damage of McCain’s attacks by shifting focus and deemphasizing the issue.

Thus far, Obama has tried to shift the argument from "experience" to "judgment." While perhaps "masquing treason," the voters have given him the benefit of the doubt. However, if the long campaign prevents him from dodging the issue altogether, even his best defense, a comparison to Lincoln, acknowledges his inexperience and could cost him votes.

Obama's Age

When the 60 and over crowd was at Woodstock, Obama was only eight years old. It is hard to convince people you are ready to lead the country when you are their little brother’s age. Nevertheless, the issue's ability to entrench the perception of Obama as inexperienced is balanced by voters' hesitancy to elect a 72 year old president. In fact, fear of being portrayed as an aging Washington insider and Obama's surgical use of the term "half century of service" have forced McCain to deemphasize age as much as he emphasizes experience. "Old" is the word voters most commonly associate with McCain? and pundits are beginning to draw allusions to Bob Dole.

If Obama can stay ahead of McCain on the age issue, the experience argument will be less damaging. While voter’s may still elect the inexperienced (George W. Bush) or the young (JFK, Bill Clinton), they have yet to put someone in the white house perceived to be both.

Obama's Race

In a nation with embarrassingly few African Americans in government and backlash against affirmative action engrained into the psyche of white America, it is harder to picture an experienced black man than an experienced white man. Passionate, intelligent, and well-spoken, maybe, but, experienced, likely not. Just as race makes it easier for voters to believe Obama is inexperienced, it will make it harder for him to convince voters that he is ready to lead.

Additionally, "experience" provides cover for people unwilling to vote for an African American. While most people voting based on race wouldn't support Obama's policies, there are some Democrats and Independents searching for a socially acceptable reason to justify their anti-Obama vote. Whether they are the elderly white voters highlighted by the Times or the “Bradley Effect” voters who say one thing and vote another, they can use the experience issue to justify their discriminatory vote. Without the cover of experience, these voters would not support Obama, but using experience to justify their otherwise discriminatory vote adds fuel to the inexperience argument. As evidenced in posts on the white, racist message board Stormfront and frank conversations with white voters (including my own grandmother), white fear of a black president is sometimes hiding behind experience.

While, by itself, his race may not spontaneously raise mainstream concerns about experience, when combined with his thin resume and the positive public perception of his opponent’s experience it helps sustain the argument. By making it harder for white voters to picture as ready to do the job and adding voices to the claims of inexperience, Obama’s race then makes that argument stick.

Conclusion

Obama can plausibly argue that good judgment trumps experience or turn the age issue against McCain. However, on race, to borrow from Ghandi, Obama is the change he wants to see in the world. As a result, it will be next to impossible to convince some voters that he is ready and capable until he does it and does it well. Until then, Obama will be waging an uphill battle to cast off the shroud of inexperience. In what is shaping up to be a close election, this is one of many issues that could decide the race.

• • I am worried that I am no longer saying anything interesting in this essay ...

- I think this might be moving in a better direction than your last paper. I think part of the danger with your topic is making it seem as if candidates are conspiring to put forth a racist argument. Obviously that's not only an inelegant summary of your point, but, well, not a summary of your point, since you make clear that you don't think any of this is (probably) some sort of evil master plan to play the race card. In any case, what I'm trying to say is that I think your paper rests on safer ground when it looks at what the voters are hearing, not what the candidates are trying to make the voters hear. Do other people agree?

Also, interesting sidenote: Clinton's "ready on day one" spiel? Allegedly stolen from McCain? 's website. -Amanda

• I really appreciate it, Amanda ... what do you think of the new draft? -- AdamCarlis 26 Feb 2008

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