Obama's Experience Problem

-- By AdamCarlis - 29 Feb 2008

Introduction

Assuming he is the nominee, Obama will face amplified concerns about his experience. Given his thin resume, age, and race, it will be difficult for him to assuage voters' anxiety regarding his readiness to govern; costing him potentially decisive votes.

Experience Matters

The Liability of Inexperience

In this election, being viewed as inexperienced is a handicap. Because of the perceived inexperience and subsequent failures of the Bush administration, concerns about national security, and our crumbling economy, the public wants a president who can step into the office ready to lead. Unfortunately for Obama, general election voters not only see McCain as more experienced, but cite "inexperienced" as the word best describing Obama. As instability increases, this characterization could lead many American’s who might have otherwise supported Obama’s candidacy to vote for the more tested candidate.

The General Election

Obama cannot credibly claim the experience mantle in the general election. Instead, McCain's lengthy time in Congress, popular military service, and nine additional months on the attack, will allow him to further entrench questions about Obama's readiness to lead. Moreover, the perception of McCain as a "maverick" allows him to acquire the experience mantle without being portrayed as a Washington insider or party crony. Therefore, he is well-positioned to portray Obama as inexperienced and capitalize on the uncertainty created by volatile circumstances without the usual baggage accompanying such attacks.

Barriers to Overcoming the Criticism

Obama, on the other hand, is poorly positioned to make a compelling argument that he has sufficient experience to lead. First, for the purposes of this election cycle, "experience" has already been defined in years of service and that is something Obama does not have. Second, Obama's age and race do not fit the stereotype of an experienced politician. Finally, he will be facing an adversary who is an archetypal presidential candidate, prepared to capitalize on this issue.

Inexperience

As Karl Rove has shown, making a charge stick only requires a little bit of truth, a willingness to obscure the issue, and a disciplined attack. Just as the Republicans questioned Max Cleland's patriotism and turned John Kerry into a waffling opportunist, they will exploit the public perception of Obama's unpreparedness. Obama’s relatively thin resume (3 years in the Senate, 8 more in the state Senate, and 15 years as a community organizer, attorney, and academic) provides the little bit of truth and the Republican machine will provide the rest. Since a head to head experience battle favors McCain, Obama’s best hope is to mitigate the damage of McCain's attacks by shifting focus and deemphasizing the issue.

Thus far, Obama, perhaps "masquing treason," has tried to shift the argument from "experience" to "judgment." However, this tactic does not change the public’s perception of Obama’s experience; it only mitigates its importance. If the long campaign forces the issue, even his best defense, a comparison to Lincoln, acknowledges his inexperience, perhaps costing him votes.

Age

When the 60 and over crowd was at Woodstock, Obama was eight years old. Convincing people old enough to be your parent that you are ready to lead the country is challenging. Nevertheless, the issue's ability to entrench the perception of Obama as inexperienced is balanced by voter hesitancy to elect a 72 year old president. In fact, Obama's surgical use of the term "half century of service" has forced McCain to deemphasize age as much as he emphasizes experience. "Old" is the word voters most commonly associate with McCain and comparisons to Dole are creeping into the race. McCain will have to find a way to focus on experience without looking his age, possibly reducing the potency of his attacks.

Race

With embarrassingly few African Americans in government and backlash against affirmative action engrained into the psyche of white America, it is harder to picture an experienced black man than an experienced white man. Intelligent and well-spoken, maybe, but, experienced, likely not. Just as race facilitates believing Obama is inexperienced, it makes it harder for him to convince voters that he is ready to lead.

Additionally, "experience" provides cover for people unwilling to vote for an African American. While most people voting based on race wouldn't support Obama's policies, some Democrats and Independents are searching for a socially acceptable reason to justify their anti-Obama vote. Whether they are the elderly white voters highlighted by the Times or the “Bradley Effect” voters, saying one thing and voting another, the experience issue can be used to justify an otherwise discriminatory vote.

Without the cover of experience, these voters would not support Obama, but using experience to justify their otherwise discriminatory vote adds fuel to the inexperience argument. As evidenced in posts on the racist message board Stormfront and frank conversations with white voters (including my own grandmother, a life-long democrat, who remarked, after being pressed on her criticisms of Obama, that "we’re just not ready for a black president"), white fear of a black president is often hiding behind experience.

Obama’s race alone may not spontaneously raise mainstream concerns about experience, however, by making it harder for white voters to picture Obama as ready to do the job and adding voices to the chorus questioning his experience, race makes the experience argument stick.

Conclusion

Obama can plausibly argue that good judgment trumps experience or turn the age issue against McCain. However, on race, to borrow from Gandhi, Obama is the change he wants to see in the world. As a result, it will be next to impossible for him to convince some voters that he is ready and capable until he does it and does it well. Until then, Obama will be waging an uphill battle to cast off the shroud of inexperience.

Many other (possibly more important) issues will go a long way to determine who wins this election. However, given how close this race is likely to be, the candidate who best manages the experience issue, all other things being equal, is likely to wind up on top.

- I think this might be moving in a better direction than your last paper. I think part of the danger with your topic is making it seem as if candidates are conspiring to put forth a racist argument. Obviously that's not only an inelegant summary of your point, but, well, not a summary of your point, since you make clear that you don't think any of this is (probably) some sort of evil master plan to play the race card. In any case, what I'm trying to say is that I think your paper rests on safer ground when it looks at what the voters are hearing, not what the candidates are trying to make the voters hear. Do other people agree?

Also, interesting sidenote: Clinton's "ready on day one" spiel? Allegedly stolen from McCain? 's website. -Amanda

• I really appreciate it, Amanda ... what do you think of the new draft? -- AdamCarlis 26 Feb 2008

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