Obama's Experience Problem

-- By AdamCarlis - 29 Feb 2008

Introduction

Assuming he is the nominee, Obama will face amplified concerns about his experience. Given his thin resume, relative youth, and race, it will be difficult for him to assuage voters' anxiety regarding his readiness to govern, costing him potentially decisive votes.

Experience Matters

The Liability of Inexperience

In this election, being viewed as inexperienced is a handicap. Because of the perceived inexperience and subsequent failures of the Bush administration, concerns about national security, and our crumbling economy, the public wants a president who can step into the office ready to lead. Unfortunately for Obama, general election voters cite "inexperienced" as the word that best describes him. This characterization could lead many American’s who might have otherwise supported Obama’s candidacy to vote for the more tested candidate, particularly if the current economic and political instability continues.

The General Election

Obama cannot credibly claim the experience mantle in the general election. Instead, McCain's lengthy Congressional record, popular military service, and nine additional months on the attack, will allow him to further entrench questions about Obama's readiness to lead. Moreover, the perception of McCain as a "maverick" allows him to be seen as experienced without being portrayed as a Washington insider or party crony. Therefore, he is well-positioned to capitalize on the uncertainty created by volatile circumstances without the usual baggage accompanying such attacks.

Barriers to Overcoming the Criticism

Obama, on the other hand, is poorly positioned to make a compelling argument that he has sufficient experience to lead. First, for the purposes of this election cycle, "experience" has already been defined in years of service and that is something Obama does not have. Second, Obama's age and race do not fit the stereotype of an experienced politician. Finally, his adversary is an archetypal presidential candidate prepared to capitalize on this issue.

• I feel like there is some structure problem here. This paragraph feels like it belongs before the general election paragraph. I should look to see if there is a way to smooth this out

Inexperience

As Karl Rove has shown, making a charge stick only requires three things: a little bit of truth, a willingness to obscure the issue, and a disciplined attack. Just as the Republicans turned John Kerry into a waffling opportunist, they will exploit the public perception of Obama's unpreparedness. Obama’s relatively thin resume (3 years in the Senate, 8 in state government, and 15 as a community organizer, attorney, and academic) provides the little bit of truth and the Republican machine will provide the rest.

• Do I need more here? I am assuming that the public sees experience in number of years served or major accomplishments achieved without really justifying that. Obama would neither be the youngest man elected president or the least "experienced" (by pretty much any measure), but he is less "experienced" than McCain in almost every category that could conceivably matter to a large percentage of voters. What needs to be said, beyond what I have said, to make this work?

Since a head to head experience battle favors McCain, Obama’s best hope is to mitigate the damage of McCain's attacks by shifting focus and deemphasizing the issue. Thus far, Obama, perhaps "masquing treason," has tried to shift the argument from "experience" to "judgment." However, this tactic does not change public's perception of his experience; it only mitigates its importance. If the long campaign forces the issue, even Obama's best defense, a comparison to Lincoln, acknowledges his inexperience, perhaps costing him votes.

Age

When the 60 and over crowd was at Woodstock, Obama was eight years old. It is not easy to convince people old enough to be your parent that you are ready to lead the country (especially when standing next to their older brother). Nevertheless, the issue's ability to entrench the perception of Obama as inexperienced is balanced by voter hesitancy to elect a 72 year old. In fact, Obama's surgical use of "half century of service," while perhaps cementing the idea that age equals experience, has, at least, forced McCain to deemphasize age as much as he emphasizes his own experience. "Old" is the word voters most associate with McCain and so he will have to find a way to focus on experience without looking his age, possibly reducing the potency of his attacks.

Race

With embarrassingly few African Americans in government and backlash against affirmative action engrained into the psyche of white America, it is harder to picture an experienced black man than an experienced white man. Intelligent and well-spoken maybe, but, experienced, likely not. Race both facilitates believing Obama is inexperienced and makes it harder for him to convince voters that he is ready to lead.

Additionally, "experience" provides cover for people unwilling to vote for an African American. While most people voting based on race wouldn't support Obama's policies, some Democrats and Independents are searching for a socially acceptable reason to justify their anti-Obama vote. Whether they are the elderly white voters highlighted by the Times or the “Bradley Effect” voters, saying one thing and voting another, the experience issue can be used to justify an otherwise discriminatory vote.

Without the cover of experience, these voters would not support Obama, but using experience to justify their otherwise discriminatory vote adds fuel to the inexperience argument. As evidenced in posts on the racist message board Stormfront and frank conversations with white voters (including my own grandmother, a life-long democrat, who remarked, after being pressed on her criticisms of Obama, that "we’re just not ready for a black president"), white fear of a black president is often hiding behind experience.

Obama's race alone may not spontaneously raise mainstream concerns about experience, however, by making it harder for white voters to picture Obama as ready to do the job and adding voices to the chorus questioning his experience, race makes the experience argument stick.

Conclusion

Many other (possibly more important) issues will also determine who wins this election. However, given how close this race is likely to be, the candidate who best manages the experience issue, all else being equal, will likely wind up on top.

Obama can plausibly argue that good judgment trumps experience or turn the age issue against McCain. However, on race, to borrow from Gandhi, Obama is the change he wants to see in the world. As a result, it will be next to impossible for him to convince some voters that he is ready and capable until he does it and does it well. Until then, Obama will be waging an uphill battle to cast off the shroud of inexperience, possibly costing him the election.

• I use a lot of words to say nothing in this conclustion, that have to change

- I think this might be moving in a better direction than your last paper. I think part of the danger with your topic is making it seem as if candidates are conspiring to put forth a racist argument. Obviously that's not only an inelegant summary of your point, but, well, not a summary of your point, since you make clear that you don't think any of this is (probably) some sort of evil master plan to play the race card. In any case, what I'm trying to say is that I think your paper rests on safer ground when it looks at what the voters are hearing, not what the candidates are trying to make the voters hear. Do other people agree?

Also, interesting sidenote: Clinton's "ready on day one" spiel? Allegedly stolen from McCain? 's website. -Amanda

• I really appreciate it, Amanda ... what do you think of the new draft? -- AdamCarlis 26 Feb 2008

# * Set ALLOWTOPICVIEW = TWikiAdminGroup, AdamCarlis